When are you planning to retire?

To assess the retirement intentions of older workers in Belgium, we focused on the responses of working people aged 50 to 59 who took part in the SHARE surveys conducted between 2011 and 2020. We analysed their answers to the question, “Thinking about your current job, would you like to retire as soon as possible?” Workers' expectations are, by their very nature, subjective, but they may not be in a position to satisfy these expectations due to a lack of control over certain dimensions. On top of this, although one may wish to retire, financial or family commitments can sometimes mean that it is necessary to continue working. On average, almost one in three workers aged between 50 and 59 would like to retire “as soon as possible”. Who are they and why do they want to do so? Let’s take a quick look at some of the factors involved.

• Gender: until 2009, the statutory retirement age for women was lower than for men. Today, the prerequisites for retirement are the same, but average careers by gender differ in terms of length (often linked to having children), sector of activity, and level of pay. This, combined with women's higher life expectancy, may explain why proportionately fewer want to retire early. 29% of women aged 50 to 59 want to retire early, compared with 33% of men.
• Income level: in theory, a higher income has no obvious effect on retirement age. An executive on a high salary could very well decide to give themself more leisure time by retiring early (substitution effect) or, on the contrary, value an extra year's work (income effect). In practice, the data suggest that higher incomes lead people to want to retire later: only one in five of those on the highest incomes wants to retire early, compared with one in three of those on lower incomes. It is important to note that the type of job a worker does can influence both their salary and their ability to work longer.
• Sector of activity and professional status: some sectors of activity are more physically demanding, on average, or have atypical working hours, both of which could influence one’s ability to stay in work over the longer term. Workers in the construction industry, for example, are more likely to retire early (42%), while those in non-retail services are less likely (26%). Taking account of the arduous nature of work in the pension system is a thorny issue because it is difficult to assess objectively and comprehensively. Notably, the self-employed, who represent only one in nine respondents, often retire later than employees.
• The working environment: job satisfaction, support from one’s superiors, professional recognition, the level of pressure, or the relationship with one’s employer and colleagues are all key factors in staying in work. Only 6% of older workers are dissatisfied at work, but this issue plays a decisive role in decisions over when to retire.
• Health: musculoskeletal issues (such as back or joint problems) or mental health concerns (such as depression or burn-out) can lead to incapacity for work and are more frequent at the end of a career. Among those who consider themselves to be in poor health, one in two would like to retire soon, compared with one in five of those who consider themselves to be in excellent health. However, the majority of respondents (75%) fall into an intermediate category, i.e. they assess their health as good and wish to retire in line with the average.
• Change over time: the expected retirement age increased by one and a half years between 2011 and 2020. This should be seen in the context of an advancing healthy life expectancy and successive reforms to the pension system since 1997, which have made it harder to withdraw early from the labour market. Nevertheless, the proportion of workers wishing to retire as soon as possible is on the rise: 10 percentage points lie between the results from the surveys in 2011 and 2020.

Proportion of positive responses to the question “Would you like to retire as soon as possible?” by category of Belgian worker aged 50-59

(percentage, weighted data)

Among the factors likely to lead to a desire to retire, two clearly stand out: job satisfaction and self-assessed health.

However, these results must be interpreted with caution. On the one hand, variables may be interrelated (between sector of activity and health, for example, or between pay and job satisfaction). On the other hand, there are many aspects that cannot be adequately measured, and what remains unexplained by the variables assessed in the survey remains important. For example, the obsolescence of skills could swing the balance.