According to the NBB’s spring projections, the Belgian economy should continue to grow by around 0.3% on a quarterly basis, with the rate stepping up slightly from 2026 onwards. This would result in an annual growth rate of 1.2% for 2024 and 2025 and of 1.4% for 2026. Domestic demand is likely to moderate but the contribution of net exports should gradually become less negative thanks to recovering competitiveness.

Job creation practically ground to a halt in late 2023, but is expected to gradually pick up. Approximately 90 000 jobs are set to be created in the period from 2024 to 2026; the unemployment rate should remain low.

As predicted, headline inflation rose again in the spring - a temporary effect linked mainly to energy price volatility - but will fall again.

As usual, these projections are based on a “no policy change” assumption.  According to these forecasts, the budget deficit will widen markedly, to 5.5% of GDP by 2026, while the debt-to-GDP ratio will also increase further, reaching over 110% in 2026.