The forecasts for Belgium are compiled as part of the macroeconomic projections produced by Eurosystem and ECB staff. They are based on technical assumptions and international forecasts formulated jointly by the ECB and the national central banks of the euro area. They take into account only measures that have been – or are very likely to be – formally adopted and for which, on the cut-off date of the projections, implementing arrangements have been set out in sufficient detail. The projection period runs to year t+3 (in this case, until 2026). The margin of error is wider for later years, due in part to greater uncertainty regarding the assumptions, especially those relating to the international environment.

The latest projections for Belgium were finalised on 22 May and published on 7 June 2024. The corresponding projections for the euro area can be found on the ECB’s website.

According to the NBB’s spring projections, the Belgian economy should continue to grow by around 0.3% on a quarterly basis, with the rate stepping up slightly from 2026 onwards. This would result in an annual growth rate of 1.2% for 2024 and 2025 and of 1.4% for 2026.  Domestic demand is likely to moderate but the contribution of net exports should gradually become less negative thanks to recovering competitiveness. Job creation practically ground to a halt in late 2023, but is expected to gradually pick up. Approximately 90 000 jobs are set to be created in the period from 2024 to 2026; the unemployment rate should thus remain low. As predicted, headline inflation rose again in the spring - a temporary effect linked mainly to energy price volatility - but will fall again. As usual, these projections are based on a “no policy change” assumption. According to these forecasts, the budget deficit will widen markedly, to 5.5% of GDP by 2026, while the debt-to-GDP ratio will also increase further, reaching over 110% in 2026.