Aggregate and distributional effects of a carbon tax

Working Paper No 460

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To identify the households most aected by a carbon tax I set up a multi-sector model with puy-clay technology. A $100-per-ton carbon tax cuts emissions by 25% aer 5 years, but reduces output by 3% in the short run and 4% in the long run. Initially, the tax is progressive despite poorer households spending more on carbon-intensive goods, the prices of which rise. The complementarity of capital and energy causes a sharp decline in capital income, aecting top earners the most, and leads to job cuts in capital goods-producing industries that employ high-income earners. Over time the tax incidence flattens.